U.S. Industrial Output Probably Rose in January on Utilities
U.S. Industrial Output Probably Rose in January on Utilities
By Bob Willis
Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) — Industrial production in the U.S.
rose in January, led by higher utility output that was pushed up
by colder-than-normal temperatures, a survey of economists
indicated before a report today.
Production at factories, mines and utilities rose 0.1
percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News
survey of 79 economists before a Federal Reserve report. Some
economists, such as Ethan Harris at Lehman Brothers Holdings
Inc. in New York, estimate that manufacturing, which makes up
four-fifths of industrial output, fell as the economy slowed.
“We expect another lackluster month for production in
January,;; said Mike Englund, chief economist at Action
Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado. “The flat production
trajectory as we enter the first quarter is in line with our 1
percent gross domestic product forecast;; for the first quarter.
Growing overseas economies, such as China;s, and a weaker
dollar are boosting U.S. exports and may keep manufacturing from
collapsing as American companies and consumers rein in spending.
Other reports today may show the cost of imported goods rose in
January and consumer confidence weakened this month.
The Fed is scheduled to release its industrial production
report at 9:15 a.m. in Washington. Forecasts in Bloomberg;s
survey ranged from a 0.2 percent drop to a 0.5 percent gain.
The average temperature in January was 30.5 degrees
Fahrenheit, 0.3 degree below the mean temperature for that month
in the 20th century, according to the National Climatic Data
Center in Asheville, North Carolina. The Northeast was hit by
blizzard conditions at the end of the month as a storm system
spread freezing air and wind gusts from Washington to Boston.
Capacity Utilization
Capacity utilization, which measures the proportion of
plants in use, fell to 81.3 percent from 81.4 percent in the
prior month, economists forecast.
Prices of goods imported into the U.S. rose 0.5 percent in
January, reflecting higher oil prices that have since eased, a
Bloomberg survey indicated. The Labor Department release is
scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Prices probably increased 12.7 percent
from a year before.
Consumer sentiment is forecast to drop, hurt by falling
home prices and elevated energy costs. The University of
Michigan/Reuters preliminary index of consumer sentiment for
February fell to 76, according to a Bloomberg survey before
today;s 10 a.m. release. That would be down from 78.4 in
January.
Economic growth slowed to a 0.6 percent pace in the fourth
quarter, and the economy lost jobs in January for the first time
in more than four years. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News
this month indicated even odds that the economy will enter a
recession this year.
Sales Slump
Cars and light trucks sold at a 15.2 million annual pace in
January, the worst showing since October 2005, industry figures
showed. Economists for General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and
Chrysler LLC said Jan. 15 that U.S. sales of cars and light
trucks may fall for a third straight year in 2008.
“This is going to be a challenging year for the auto
industry,;; Paul Traub, a Chrysler economist, said at a
conference in Detroit last month.
Exporters are helping to keep factory assembly lines
moving. General Electric Co. said fourth-quarter profit rose 15
percent on higher international sales of jet engines and power-
plant turbines, drawing more than half its annual revenue from
overseas for the first time.
GE Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt;s push into
global markets was led by a 30 percent jump in the GE
Infrastructure group;s sales, as developing countries built
cities, hospitals and airports, and the dollar weakened.
“Every place we went there;s a need for power, there;s a
need for planes, there;s lots of capital being invested, and
there;s just no sign this global infrastructure boom is slowing
at all,;; Immelt told a conference call Jan. 18.
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Ind. Cap. ImportU of Mich
Prod. Util. Prices Conf.
MOM% % MOM% Index
================================================================
Date of Release 02/15 02/15 02/15 02/15
Observation Period Jan. Jan. Jan. Feb. P
—————————————————————-
Median 0.1% 81.3% 0.5% 76.0
Average 0.1% 81.3% 0.5% 76.0
High Forecast 0.5% 81.6% 2.0% 80.6
Low Forecast -0.2% 81.0% -1.0% 70.0
Number of Participants 79 69 52 66
Previous 0.0% 81.4% 0.0% 78.4
—————————————————————-
4CAST Ltd. 0.0% — 0.5% 74.0
Action Economics 0.0% 81.3% 0.5% 75.0
AIG Investments 0.2% — -0.2% 77.0
Aletti Gestielle SGR 0.2% 81.5% — 78.0
Allianz Dresdner Economic 0.2% 81.4% — —
Argus Research Corp. 0.2% 81.6% 0.2% 75.0
Banc of America Securitie 0.2% 81.4% — —
Banesto 0.1% — 0.3% 79.0
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 0.3% 81.5% 0.8% 80.6
Bantleon Bank AG 0.1% — 0.2% 76.0
Barclays Capital 0.1% 81.4% 0.3% 77.0
BBVA 0.2% 81.0% 0.2% 79.5
Bear, Stearns %26amp; Co. 0.1% 81.4% 0.6% —
BMO Capital Markets 0.1% 81.3% 0.4% 76.0
BNP Paribas -0.1% 81.2% 0.1% 75.0
Briefing.com 0.2% 81.5% — 78.0
Calyon 0.1% 81.3% — 78.5
CEMEX 0.0% 81.3% — 75.5
CFC Group 0.0% 81.2% 0.5% 74.5
CIBC World Markets 0.1% 81.4% — 72.0
Citi 0.0% 81.2% 1.0% 75.5
ClearView Economics 0.2% 81.4% — —
Commerzbank AG 0.3% 81.5% — 79.0
Credit Suisse 0.0% 81.2% 0.3% 70.0
Daiwa Securities America 0.2% 81.4% — 75.0
Danske Bank 0.0% — — 77.0
DekaBank 0.0% 81.3% 0.5% 76.0
Desjardins Group 0.1% 81.4% 0.2% 70.0
Deutsche Bank Securities 0.1% 81.3% 0.4% 74.0
Deutsche Postbank AG 0.2% — 0.7% 78.0
Dresdner Kleinwort 0.0% 81.3% 0.6% 76.5
DZ Bank -0.2% 81.2% 0.3% 74.0
First Trust Advisors 0.2% 81.4% 0.6% 79.0
Fortis 0.2% — 0.2% 76.0
FTN Financial 0.2% 81.4% — 76.0
Global Insight Inc. -0.2% 81.1% — 73.0
Goldman, Sachs %26amp; Co. 0.1% 81.3% — —
H%26amp;R Block Financial Advis 0.0% 81.3% 0.4% 76.5
Helaba -0.2% 81.1% 0.5% 76.5
High Frequency Economics 0.2% 81.6% 0.9% 74.0
HSBC Markets 0.1% 81.4% 0.5% 76.0
IDEAglobal 0.1% 81.4% 0.4% 79.0
Informa Global Markets 0.0% 81.3% 0.3% 77.0
ING Financial Markets 0.5% 81.6% — 74.0
Insight Economics 0.2% 81.4% 2.0% 77.0
Intesa-SanPaulo 0.0% 81.4% 0.4% 77.0
J.P. Morgan Chase 0.0% 81.3% 0.6% 75.0
Janney Montgomery Scott L 0.0% 81.2% 0.4% —
JPMorgan Private Client 0.1% 81.2% — 76.0
Landesbank Berlin 0.3% 81.3% 0.6% 74.8
Landesbank BW -0.1% 81.3% -1.0% 77.0
Lehman Brothers -0.1% 81.2% 0.0% 75.0
Lloyds TSB 0.1% 81.3% 0.4% 79.0
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc 0.1% 81.3% 1.0% —
Merrill Lynch -0.2% 81.2% 0.9% 72.0
MFC Global Investment Man 0.0% 81.2% 0.3% 76.5
Mizuho Securities 0.3% 81.5% 0.2% 76.0
Moody;s Economy.com 0.1% 81.4% 0.8% 75.0
Morgan Keegan %26amp; Co. 0.1% 81.3% — —
Morgan Stanley %26amp; Co. 0.1% 81.4% — —
National Bank Financial — — — 75.0
National City Bank 0.4% 81.6% -0.3% 79.6
Natixis -0.1% 81.2% — 75.0
Nomura Securities Intl. 0.1% 81.5% — —
Nord/LB -0.1% — — 78.0
RBS Greenwich Capital 0.0% 81.3% — —
Ried, Thunberg %26amp; Co. 0.2% 81.5% 0.9% 75.0
Scotia Capital 0.1% 81.3% — —
Societe Generale 0.0% 81.3% — 74.0
Stone %26amp; McCarthy Research 0.0% 81.3% 1.3% 76.0
Thomson Financial/IFR 0.1% 81.4% 0.0% 77.4
Tullett Prebon 0.1% 81.4% 0.5% 77.0
UBS Securities LLC 0.2% 81.5% — 70.0
Unicredit MIB 0.0% 81.3% — 76.0
University of Maryland 0.1% 81.4% 0.7% 79.0
Wachovia Corp. 0.2% 81.3% — —
Wells Fargo %26amp; Co. 0.0% — 0.5% —
WestLB AG 0.1% 81.4% 0.5% 76.0
Westpac Banking Co. 0.2% — 0.2% 80.0
Wrightson Associates 0.1% 81.3% 0.6% 76.0
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To contact the reporter on this story:
Bob Willis in Washington at
